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Geometric Distribution Calculator

Free geometric distribution calculator for probability calculations. Calculate exact, cumulative, and at-least probabilities with step-by-step solutionsfor statistics and probability theory. Perfect for students learning discrete probability distributions.

Last updated: December 15, 2024

Three calculation types: exact, cumulative, at-least
Mean, variance, and standard deviation calculations
Step-by-step solutions with formulas

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Geometric Distribution Calculator
Calculate geometric distribution probabilities

Geometric Distribution Results

Probability:

0.1029

Exact Probability

Formula: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p

Cumulative Probability:

0.7599

Mean (Expected Value):

3.333

Variance:

7.778

Step-by-Step Solution:

Step 1: Given parameters
Success probability (p) = 0.3
Number of trials (k) = 4
Step 2: Apply geometric distribution formula
P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p
P(X = 4) = (1-0.3)^(4-1) × 0.3
P(X = 4) = 0.700^3 × 0.3
P(X = 4) = 0.343 × 0.3 = 0.1029
Step 3: Calculate cumulative probability
P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k
P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - (1-0.3)^4
P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - 0.700^4 = 1 - 0.2401 = 0.7599

Geometric Distribution Tips:

  • • P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p for exact probability
  • • P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k for cumulative probability
  • • P(X ≥ k) = (1-p)^(k-1) for at least probability
  • • Mean = 1/p, Variance = (1-p)/p²
  • • Models number of trials until first success

Geometric Distribution Types

Exact Probability
P(X = k) calculation

Formula

P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p

Probability of exactly k trials until first success

Cumulative Probability
P(X ≤ k) calculation

Formula

P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k

Probability of success within k trials or fewer

At Least Probability
P(X ≥ k) calculation

Formula

P(X ≥ k) = (1-p)^(k-1)

Probability of needing at least k trials

Quality Control
Manufacturing applications

Example

Items inspected until first defect

p = defect rate, k = inspection number

Game Theory
Gaming and sports applications

Example

Attempts until first win

p = win probability, k = attempt number

Reliability Engineering
System failure analysis

Example

Time until first system failure

p = failure rate, k = time period

Quick Example Result

Geometric distribution with p = 0.3, k = 4:

Exact Probability

0.1029

Cumulative

0.7599

Mean

3.333

How to Calculate Geometric Distribution

Geometric distribution is a fundamental discrete probability distribution that models the number of trials needed to achieve the first success in a series of independent Bernoulli trials. Understanding this distribution is crucial for statistics, quality control, and decision-makingin various fields where waiting time until success is important.

The Geometric Distribution Process

Step 1: Identify the success probability (p) and number of trials (k)
Step 2: Choose the calculation type (exact, cumulative, or at-least)
Step 3: Apply the appropriate geometric distribution formula
Step 4: Calculate mean, variance, and other distribution parameters
Step 5: Interpret results in the context of the problem

This systematic approach ensures accurate geometric distribution calculations for any scenario.

Geometric Distribution Formulas

The geometric distribution has three main formulas: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p for exact probability, P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k for cumulative probability, and P(X ≥ k) = (1-p)^(k-1) for at-least probability. The distribution is characterized by its mean μ = 1/p and variance σ² = (1-p)/p². The memoryless property means that the probability of success in future trials doesn't depend on past failures.

  • Exact Probability: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p
  • Cumulative Probability: P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k
  • At Least Probability: P(X ≥ k) = (1-p)^(k-1)
  • Mean: μ = 1/p
  • Variance: σ² = (1-p)/p²

Sources & References

  • Introduction to Probability - Joseph K. Blitzstein, Jessica HwangComprehensive coverage of discrete probability distributions including geometric
  • Statistical Inference - George Casella, Roger L. BergerAdvanced statistical methods and distribution theory
  • Khan Academy - Geometric DistributionVideo tutorials and practice problems on discrete probability distributions

Need help with other probability topics? Check out our percentage calculator and mixed number calculator.

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Geometric Distribution Example

Step-by-Step Solution
Calculating exact probability for p = 0.3, k = 4

Given Parameters:

Success probability (p) = 0.3

Number of trials (k) = 4

Calculation type = Exact probability

Solution Steps:

  1. Step 1: Given parameters
  2. Success probability (p) = 0.3
  3. Number of trials (k) = 4
  4. Step 2: Apply geometric distribution formula
  5. P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) × p
  6. P(X = 4) = (1-0.3)^(4-1) × 0.3
  7. P(X = 4) = 0.700^3 × 0.3
  8. P(X = 4) = 0.343 × 0.3 = 0.1029
  9. Step 3: Calculate cumulative probability
  10. P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k
  11. P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - (1-0.3)^4
  12. P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - 0.700^4 = 1 - 0.2401 = 0.7599

Final Results:

Exact Probability

0.1029

Cumulative Probability

0.7599

Mean

3.333

Variance

7.778

Quality Control

p = 0.05 defect rate, k = 10 inspections

P(X = 10) = 0.0315

Game Theory

p = 0.2 win probability, k = 5 attempts

P(X = 5) = 0.0819

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