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Free ground-source vs air-source heat pump calculator: enter annual heating demand (kWh thermal) and two seasonal COP values to estimate annual heating electricity (kWh) for each system. Optionally add $/kWh and the extra upfront cost of GSHP versus ASHP for operating savings and simple payback.
Last updated: April 18, 2026
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Useful heat delivered over the heating season—often from an audit or energy model.
Set to 0 to hide operating cost and payback; use your blended heating-season rate if known.
Net equipment + ground loop premium after incentives; 0 hides simple payback.
Air-source
2,667 kWh
COP 3
Ground-source
1,778 kWh
COP 4.5
Electricity savings (GSHP vs ASHP)
889 kWh / yr
≈ 33.3% less grid use vs air-source
Modeled heating electricity cost
ASHP: $480 / yr
GSHP: $320 / yr
Operating savings: $160 / yr
Simple payback (incremental ÷ annual operating savings)
75 years
Screening only
ASHP
Seasonal average COP
Use cold-climate or regional seasonal values—not a single rating point alone.
GSHP
Often higher seasonal COP
Field design and loop temperature still matter for real performance.
Payback
Incremental $ vs annual savings
Incentives can change net incremental cost materially.
kWh
Lower use with higher COP
Compare scenarios before sizing service upgrades.
Load
Same number for both columns
If envelope upgrades reduce load, rerun with the new annual kWh thermal.
Tools
Manual J / hourly models
Pair screening COP comparisons with proper load calculation.
8,000 kWh thermal; ASHP COP 3.0; GSHP COP 4.5; $0.18/kWh; $12,000 incremental:
ASHP electricity
2,666.7 kWh
GSHP electricity
1,777.8 kWh
Electricity savings
888.9 kWh / yr
For a fixed annual useful heat demand Q in kilowatt-hours thermal, estimated compressor-centric heating electricity is Q divided by coefficient of performance. Air-source annual electricity is Q / COPair; ground-source annual electricity is Q / COPground. The difference is annual kilowatt-hour savings when choosing ground-source instead of air-source, holding load and boundary assumptions constant. Multiplying each electricity total by price gives operating cost; dividing net incremental install cost by annual operating savings yields simple payback years when those inputs are provided.
kWh_e,air ≈ Q_kWh_th / COP_airkWh_e,ground ≈ Q_kWh_th / COP_groundΔkWh ≈ kWh_e,air − kWh_e,groundCost ≈ kWh_e × $/kWhSimple payback ≈ incremental $ / annual $ savingsOne COP per system—use seasonal values when possible
Model air-source savings vs baselines with the air source heat pump savings calculator.
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